Poll shift: Averting a repeat of history

Chief Moshood Abiola

As Nigeria counts down to the rescheduled 2015 general elections, BAYO AKINLOYEexamines how the prevailing political situation re-enacts the events of 1964 and 1993 On Saturday, February 7, the Independent National Electoral Commission Chairman, Prof. Attahiru Jega, announced the postponement of the much-anticipated February elections. Many were, however, not surprised because speculations had been rife that the elections would be postponed by six weeks.

To some, the poll postponement to March 28 and April 11 is a welcome relief from the palpable tension that had gripped the nation and an opportunity for voters to get their Permanent Voter Cards. But to others, the current political atmosphere in Nigeria brings back to mind the nostalgia of the tumultuous past and the apocalyptic predictions of the year 2015 for the country. The feeling expressed by many is that things are no longer at ease and that if the political class, especially the Peoples Democratic Party-led Federal Government, does not steer the ship of governance and the electoral processes in the right direction, things may fall apart just as they did in 1966, 1983 and 1993.

Between 1964 and 1966, Nigeria experienced political upheavals precipitated by the federal elections of 1964; an electoral battle involving the Nigerian National Alliance and the United Progressive Grand Alliance. There was also electoral violence in the old Western Region, where there was power struggle between the United Progressive Grand Alliance and the Nigerian National Democratic Party for the control of the government of the region.

The impasse left the nation without a legally constituted central government for two days. By 1965, there was widespread pre- and post-election violence in the old Western Region resulting in political instability.

As the country continued to boil over, the military on January 15, 1966 took over power. The composition of the coup plotters on the one hand and the victims of the coup on the other plunged the country further into turmoil leading to a civil war from 1967 to 1970. The nation was returned to democratic rule in 1979 when Gen. Olusegun Obasanjo handed over to a democratically-elected government.

Late General Sani Abacha

The National Party of Nigeria government led by Shehu Shagari conducted the 1983 elections and the Nigerian Labour Congress at that time was quoted as saying, “We know what democracy means, it goes just beyond voting and campaigns. The 1983 elections were badly done, only a fool will say we had an election. While all parties rigged the elections, the ruling NPN employed Gestapo and mafia tactics to win.”

Following the re-election of Shagari, uncertainties and violence resulted in another military coup.

On December 31, 1983, a military government headed by Maj. Gen. Muhammadu Buhari took over the reins of the country. But, by August 27, 1985, Buhari’s regime was overthrown by his then Chief of Army Staff, Maj. Gen. Ibrahim Babangida. Babangida then began what many saw as an endless money-guzzling transition to civil rule programme.

After several false starts, the Babangida-led military junta buckled under local and international pressure to return the country to a democratic rule. The administration set up a National Electoral Commission and appointed Prof. Humphrey Nwosu as its chairman. It also decreed two political parties into existence —the Social Democratic Party and the National Republican Convention. For the SDP, Chief Moshood Kashimawo Abiola, better known as MKO, was the presidential flag bearer while his opponent was Bashir Tofa.

Several events followed in rapid sequence. Nwosu and his team set June 12, 1993 as date for the presidential election. On Thursday, June 10, 1993, he led a team of NEC officials to brief the nation’s military rulers on the commission’s plans to hold the election on that date.

About 24 hours earlier, NEC’s Director of Legal Services was before an Abuja High Court presided over by Justice Bassey Ikpeme. He was battling to convince the learned judge that her court lacked the jurisdiction to entertain a case brought before it by the Senator Arthur Nzeribe-led Association for Better Nigeria. The association was in court to seek the stoppage of the June 12 election. Meanwhile, a Lagos High Court had declared that ABN was not properly registered.

It was against this backdrop that the election was scheduled to hold.

For the first time in the nation’s history, Nigerians set aside their ethno-religious differences to vote massively for Abiola. No sooner had NEC began a state-by-state announcement of election results, than Babangida announced the annulment of the election.

In a speech on June 26, 1993, he cited electoral malpractices such as rigging and vote buying as reasons for his action. The nation flared up in protest until Babangida eventually “stepped aside” on August 26 and set up an Interim National Government headed by Ernest Shonekan, who was saddled with the responsibility to organise fresh elections.

With the country still in turmoil, Gen. Sani Abacha overthrew the ING on November 17, claiming he wanted to stabilise the polity. But the struggle to actualise the mandate of the SDP presidential candidate continued as hundreds of Nigerians continue to protest against the government. This led to the killing of scores as the military cracked down on protesters, several went on exile, and more were jailed for daring to confront the military.

When it became obvious that Abacha was unwilling to honour the people’s will, Abiola took the bull by the horns. On June 11, 1994, in what later came to be known as the Epetedo Declaration, Abiola announced himself as President of Nigeria.

He said, “I call upon the usurper, General Sani Abacha, to announce his resignation forthwith, together with the rest of his illegal ruling council. We are prepared to enter into negotiations with them to work out the mechanics for a smooth transfer of power. I pledge that if they hand over quietly, they will be retired with all their entitlements, and their positions will be accorded all the respect due to them.

“I cannot surrender (my mandate) unless the people so demand and it is by virtue of this mandate that I say that the decision of the Federal Military Government to cancel the results (of the elections) is unpatriotic and capable of causing undue and unnecessary confusion in the country.”

former President, Alhaji Shehu Shagari

What happened next was a tale of sorrow, blood and tears. Abiola was arrested and he eventually died in detention. State-sponsored terror, which became the hallmark of Abacha’s rule, led to the death of several prominent Nigerians.

But on June 8, 1998, Abacha lost his battle against pro-democracy activists —he died under controversial circumstances. A month later, MKO also died. When Gen. Abdulsalami Abubakar took over and initiated a transition programme which ushered in the current political dispensation in 1999, very few Nigerians believed he was going to keep his word.

Much has happened in the political arena since 1993. The outcome of successive elections, apart from that of 1999, have been subjects of litigation. As the new dates for the 2015 general elections approach, Nigerians are again being treated to a fresh round of political tension with some political observers saying that there is little or no sign Nigerian masses and the political elite have learnt from the experiences of the past.

The All Progressives Congress has been accusing the PDP and President Goodluck Jonathan of not being interested in conducting credible, free and fair elections. The tension came to a head when the nation’s security chiefs advised the INEC to reschedule the election timetable.

According to the Head of Department of Political Science, University of Nsukka, Enugu State, Prof. Jonah Onuoha, the PDP is afraid of losing the presidential election to the APC.

“The current political imbroglio is confusing and it’s a unique one. This is the first time an opposition party will be giving an incumbent government every reason to be jittery. We can see the attempt they are making to force Jega out while they are shopping for another INEC boss who will do their bidding.

“Nobody should go to sleep. We must make a lot of noise. There should be mass mobilisation; everyone should stand up for this democracy and ensure that it is not truncated. We must ensure that the PDP does not hand over power to the military. The masses have become wiser,” Onuoha argued.

Commenting on the situation, a political analyst and lecturer at the University of Ibadan, Dr. Idowu Johnson, asserted the country would face a major crisis if the situation is not nipped in the bud.

Johnson said, “It’s like Nigerian leaders and elite have yet to learn from the nation’s past mistakes. Why are they running the country like a pariah state? We are heading back to 1964 and 1993; only that this time around, we should be ready for a more devastating experience if this democracy is allowed to be truncated by some power-hungry elite.

“All Nigerians should be more vigilant and resolute. Let us give the PDP-led government and the security agencies benefit of the doubt. Let’s not doubt their ability to win the battle against Boko Haram in six weeks.”

While many have expressed gloom over the eventual outcome of the coming elections, the Head of Department, History and International Studies, Ekiti State University, Ado Ekiti, Dr. Emmanuel Ojo, noted that the poll shift could be a blessing in disguise.

“Politics has both international and local contents and contexts. If the international community sees the postponement as a ‘danger’ signal and the elections run smoothly at the end of the day; locals will see it as positively decisive. If Nigerians file out to the polls without molestation or hindrance, then the postponement will be worth it in every respect. The world is progressively moving away from the triangular ills of violence, thuggery and arson. Those who make themselves available as implementers of political violence don’t live to eat of its fruits. Why should anyone spill his blood for the benefit of others?” Ojo explained.

“As you can gather from the widespread response of the international community to the idea of the postponement, it is definitely not good for our image. The truth of the matter is that scenarios like this show the true shallowness of our young democracy – no substance and no institutionalism. How can you build stable structures when a process of such democratic significance can be scuttled in the blink of an eye by elements who appear to be more powerful than the entire country in itself?

“No foreign nation is willing to invest its time, resources or support in a process that reeks with uncertainty. The outcome of this six week postponement is yet unfolding and it does not speak well of the intentions of the sitting government in light of the growing popularity of the opposition candidate,” he added.

A lawyer, Mrs. Olufunke Oluwole, observed that while it was painful that the election was shifted, it should give the electorate the opportunity to get their PVCs if they had not done so. She, however, counseled against Nigerians embarking on a mass protest that might lead to chaos.

She asked, “What will they be protesting about when more urgent and pressing economic and security matters affect them on a daily basis? The Nigerian economy is spiraling down and our financial caretakers are confused while all commercial activities are gradually grinding to a halt. Where do we begin the protests when we are surrounded by the machinery of state security being used as tools of political thuggery?

“How many of us want to die for no just cause -I dare say none. There is no just cause for protests, the games have just begun and the players are just unfolding their cards. We wait and see before deciding which way to go -one Nigeria or no Nigeria. The state of the nation is more than protests, we are sitting on a keg of gunpowder and both sides have dynamite in their hands.”

Adding his voice to Oluwole’s stance, Professor of Economics at the Olabisi Onabanjo University, Ago Iwoye, Ogun State, Prof. Sheriffdeen Tella, said caution is the word. He feared that if people embarked on a mass protest, the action might snowball into violence.

“There is the need for the political parties to impress it on their members and supporters that there is an urgent and a compelling need to avoid violent demonstrations or protests. People should take it easy as the political storm brews. The current conflict must be resolved without any violent crisis. At this point in time, the INEC should come out more boldly to reassure the electorate that it will ensure that elections are going to be free, fair and credible.

“I’ll urge all the political parties to meet again to reaffirm their commitment to ensuring political stability in the country. The world will be looking at us now as being unserious as a nation. We must also recognise that what we face isn’t just a political issue -it’s an economic crossroads. Under the current political atmosphere, the business environment will likely suffer the most. However, this is a passing phase. I urge the Federal Government not to shift the dates again,” Tella said.