In this piece, FEMI ATOYEBI examines the issues surrounding the controversial governorship primary conducted by the Peoples Democratic Party in Oyo State as the race to Agodi Governor’s Office intensifies
That the Peoples Democratic Party conducted a governorship primary in Oyo State on December 8, 2014 is no news. Also, the emergence of a former Senate Leader, Teslim Folarin, as the party’s governorship candidate is no news. But the intrigues thrown up by the primary have changed the political equation in the state in the countdown to the 2015 governorship election.
The emergence of Folarin at the former Liberty Stadium, now Obafemi Awolowo Stadium, Ibadan, on December 8, 2014, took not a few by surprise because, hitherto, the Ibadan-born Folarin was largely overlooked as standing no chance in the race. In a masterstroke, Folarin coasted home to victory as the party’s statutory delegates chose him as the party’s candidate even as major aspirants eyeing the ticket, former governor Adebayo Alao-Akala and 47-year-old businessman, Seyi Makinde, kicked.
A fresh dimension was added to the race when Alao-Akala dumped the PDP for the Labour Party on whose platform he is set to contest the election. Similarly, the defection of Makinde, who is seen as a young grassroots politician, from the PDP to the Social Democratic Party is seen as capable of diminishing the electoral chances of the PDP in the election. Makinde, who said he would realise his governorship ambition on the platform of the SDP, insisted that none of the aspirants within the PDP and outside it is better equipped to lead Oyo State than him.
But the fact that PDP had experienced an ego-fuelled crisis and near collapse was good news to the ruling All Progressives Congress and Accord Party supporters as both hope to benefit from the situation. It would have been a two-horse race between the incumbent Governor Abiola Ajimobi and his cousin and former governor Rashidi Ladoja. But Alao-Akala’s re-entrance into the game through the LP now means that history could be in the making. For the first time in the history of the state, the second term jinx could be broken. No governor has enjoyed two terms in the state but Ajimobi, Ladoja and Alao-Akala are on the path of doing so because of their popularity.
However, Folarin was quick to dismiss the incumbency factor as he said, “I am not bothered about the incumbency factor. As a matter of fact, it is a plus for me because if the people of Oyo State have, over the years, proved that they do not elect a candidate twice that means the odds are in my favour because I have never been a governor. The other candidates have been governors and Oyo State people do not vote for a candidate twice.”
After the PDP lost power to the APC in 2011 due to an internal crisis – as PDP members worked against the party’s success – there was an image crisis.
The party attempted a solution to mend the crack in its wall by naming a new executive comprising individuals selected on a consensus basis. The battle for the governorship ticket of the party could be said to have been won and lost at the level of the party’s executive as Folarin, in a deft move, courted the executive. But in reality, Alao-Akala’s interest was not represented purely in the new arrangement and two years after, unfolding events showed that the former governor had no grip over the executive. To some extent, Folarin has a better relationship with the executive, tilting the balance of the party towards his side.
Two ward congresses held to pick the candidates who would choose the party’s candidates for the 2015 elections failed to produce a list and the fight was shifted to Abuja, where Alao-Akala, Makinde and Folarin slugged it out. Makinde got a relief and a hanging hope when a court in Abuja recognised a list that ruled in favour of his candidates in the first ward congress. The suit was instituted by a House of Assembly aspirant in Ibadan North-East, Mr. Ademola Aremu.
By then, the 64-year-old Alao-Akala was already weighing an alternative platform after several meetings between the aspirants, when the party’s national executive and leaders had failed to recognise his demand. On the other hand, Folarin got what he wanted from the tussle when it was decided that the party would put aside its electoral conditions and find an amicable resolution to the crisis.
The statutory delegates, which replaced the ward delegates, comprised of the state executive, the party’s Board of Trustee members in the state, National Assembly members elected on the platform of the PDP from the state, their counterparts in the House of Representatives, House of Assembly members from the party and five statutory delegates from all the 33 councils in the state.
Makinde described the action as illegal and an attempt to suppress justice. The primary held and Folarin emerged the candidate but at a cost the party is now facing ahead of the elections. Alao-Akala said he would have congratulated whoever won if the contest was free and fair, adding that he stayed away because the party was bent on imposing Folarin. He actually declared for the LP on the day the primary was held in Ibadan.
When asked if the party would not suffer at the polls because of the defection of its members, the 51-year-old Folarin said it was better to fight an enemy who was outside the fence than the one within. He, insisted that the PDP would cope with Alao-Akala’s departure and ‘cage’ him at the appropriate time. As for Makinde, Folarin said there was no way the PDP would be jittery because of the billionaire’s departure, saying that positions were not ‘for sale.’ But Makinde insisted that his defection to the SDP was as a result of “calls by his supporters to run on a credible platform with a view to liberating the people of Oyo State.”
Folarin might be underplaying the consequence of the departure of the two members but there is more to it. In a deft move on Wednesday, Folarin made an incursion into Alao-Akala’s stronghold by picking the former governor’s kinsman, Ezekiel Oyedepo, as his running mate. Oyedepo is a former chairman of Oriire Local Government in Ogbomoso. It was a quick response to the naming of Sharafadeen Alli as Alao-Akala’s running mate. Like Folarin, Alli is an indigene of Ibadan with sizeable followers.
With the former governor back in the race, predictions of political analysts for 2015 have changed. Two weeks ago, the accepted narrative was that if the PDP did not come out of its crisis, Ibadan election would be split between Ajimobi and Ladoja while votes from Oke-Ogun, Ogbomoso and Oyo areas would decide the winner. Today, that conclusion seems invalid because Folarin, Ladoja, Ajimobi and Makinde are all from Ibadan and with large followers. Unless Ibadan decides to pick a candidate, this is a complex situation that may reduce what each of the candidates gets on the home front.
The argument could be that Makinde would be suppressed by the other big names but the youngest of the four is already playing the game according to the political atmosphere. He had established injustice against himself as the reason why he left the PDP and by so doing, he is eliciting the sympathy of the electorate. He has also ensured that he holds on to his support base by not surrendering after he lost the PDP governorship ticket. Surely, if he had resigned to fate, his supporters would have vanished into other political camps within the state.
While Ibadan has remained dominant in Oyo political calculation and arrangement, having so many of its sons gunning for one position and seeking the bulk of the votes from a source could have a consequence; one that could favour a candidate outside the city. There is the need to appreciate the game-changing LP’s relevance in Oyo State now because of Michael Koleoso’s factor. Koleoso was a loyalist of the late Lam Adesina, who sustained the Action Congress of Nigeria party structure before the mega party arrangement gave birth to the APC.
After the death of Adesina, there was a crack in the APC, leading to the defection of some of its key members. One of them is Koleoso, who defected to the LP with notable members of the APC. Considering his father-like political figure in Oke-Ogun and his union with Alao-Akala now, it is difficult to write off the party’s chances in 2015.
For Ladoja, the rumour of a romance with the Presidency makes the 70 year-old former governor a strong contender. Even before the alleged meeting with the wife of the President, Patience Jonathan, Ladoja had expanded his followership beyond Ibadan. While the LP is establishing its fan base in Oke-Ogun, Ladoja had penetrated the area through persistent consultation with elders in the zone and built relationships with the people. After he got the AP ticket, he said the party would concentrate on wooing Oke-Ogun people because of what the party suffered in the last election.
However, incumbent Governor Ajimobi’s type of politics is unique when compared to other candidates’. He seems to be unruffled with what other candidates are doing or what plan they might have to unseat him. As a progressive, Ajimobi, who is 65-year-old, believes his achievements, which cut across the state, would earn him re-election. He flaunts security as one of his landmark achievements although that was put to the test recently with pockets of violence in some parts of Ibadan. He described the violence as a ploy by the opposition to discredit his administration. His success at the poll in 2015 will re-write political history of the state as the first incumbent to win a re-election bid but he has to deal with criticisms that will come his path as the game progresses.
Source: Punch Nigeria
Hamzat (Cafeboy)
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